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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Nov 16 2018 5:43 am

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160532
SPC AC 160531

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z


Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous U.S. today
through tonight.

An upper ridge will remain located off the western U.S. coast this
forecast period, while a broad cyclonic flow regime exists
downstream across the contiguous states.  A pair of fast-moving
shortwave troughs, one initially located over the northern
Mid-Atlantic region and the second immediately upstream over the
Midwest/Great Lakes, will track through New England today.  Strong
forcing for ascent associated within the exit regions of
accompanying 100-kt 500-mb jets will result in steepening midlevel
lapse rates, though forecast soundings suggest most buoyancy should
not become deep enough for lightning production.  While a lightning
strike or two cannot be ruled out from elevated convection, guidance
suggests this potential should remain quite low, precluding the
introduction of a general thunderstorm area.

..Peters/Nauslar.. 11/16/2018


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