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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Jan 23 2019 10:30 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 231944
SWODY1
SPC AC 231943

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible
from the central Gulf Coast region this afternoon, to west central
Florida late tonight.

...Discussion...
Aside from adjustments to the western fringe of the outlook areas
for convective progression over the past few hours, the outlook will
otherwise remain unchanged.  As per latest forecast reasoning,
potential for a couple of damaging wind events, and possibly a
tornado or two, will continue shifting eastward across the region
through tonight.

..Goss.. 01/23/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019/

...Northern Gulf Coast today to west central FL early Thursday...
An initial midlevel shortwave trough is ejecting northeastward
toward the Great Lakes, while an upstream wave over TX translates
eastward toward the lower MS Valley.  Weak surface cyclogenesis
should be maintained through the period in advance of this southern
shortwave trough, from MS this morning to the Piedmont of the
Carolinas by early Thursday.  Strong low-level southerly flow in
advance of the weak surface low and associated cold front will
continue to advect a plume of 65-70 F boundary-layer dewpoints
inland from the central Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea. 
This moisture will support thunderstorms along and in advance of the
cold front through tonight across the north central and northeast
Gulf states. 

Per the 12z LIX and RAP/NAM forecast soundings, surface temperatures
near 70 F and dewpoints of 65-67 F will be necessary to remove the
near-surface stable layer.  However, the relatively cool shelf
waters and widespread clouds inland will help maintain the
near-surface stable layer.  Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear
will be favorable for supercells, with effective SRH greater than
400 m2/s2 and effective bulk shear greater than 50 kt.  This
scenario appears to be right on the margins for truly surface-based
convection inland, thus will maintain the outlook areas for the
threat for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts.  Gradual destabilization
is expected tonight across FL, with some potential for the stronger
storms to reach the corridor from Tampa to Jacksonville from 09-12z.

$$

        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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