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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: May 29 2020 1:40 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 291251
SWODY1
SPC AC 291249

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will pose a threat for severe wind and hail
today in parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will be dominated by troughing over eastern
North America and the extreme northeastern Pacific near the coast,
with ridging from northwestern MX and the southern Rockies across
western Canada to the North Slope of AK.  A strong shortwave trough
initially over the upper Mississippi Valley will pivot eastward
across Lake Michigan and Lower MI today, to southern QC and
northeastern NY by 12Z tomorrow.  As this occurs, another shortwave
trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over western/middle
TN, and adjoining parts of KY/MS, will eject northeastward to the
interior Mid-Atlantic by 00Z, weakening considerably.

To the west, very low-amplitude perturbations will crest the mean
ridge across the northern Rockies throughout the period.  An
initially cutoff low -- located about 550 nm west of northern Baja
near 30N -- will eject northeastward, approaching the CA coastline
near MRY by 12Z.  A complex set of vorticity lobes near the
lower/middle Rio Grande Valley of TX will, in the net, retrograde
south-southwestward over northern MX.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across eastern Lake
Huron, central IN, to near a MEM-GLS-CRP line, diffused farther
southwest by extensive convective outflow.  This front should move
eastward across the upper Ohio Valley, north-central Appalachians
and Tennessee Valley through this evening.  By 12Z, the front should
reach eastern New England, NJ, the western Carolinas, southern MS
and the northwestern Gulf.

...Northeast...
Scattered thunderstorms in broken to solid bands are expected to
move across the "slight" outlook area from late morning into this
evening, offering damaging to severe gusts and sporadic hail.  A
tornado cannot be ruled out as well.

Activity should occur in multiple episodes, initially associated
with:
1.  The frontal zone in western parts of the outlook area
2.  A convergence zone off the southeast side of the lower Great
Lakes, and
3.  A low-level trough/convergence line from the Adirondacks region
to northern VA.
Convection will form/intensify as these boundaries encounter a
diurnally destabilizing air mass amidst weak MLCINH, and large-scale
ascent increases ahead of the approaching shortwave troughs.

Rich low-level moisture has spread poleward over the region --
especially east of the Appalachians -- in the wake of former T.S.
Bertha and its remnants.  Surface dew points are in the mid/upper
60s across much of NY and New England away from the coast, and 70s
from southeastern PA southward over the eastern Carolinas.  In
concert with continuing diurnal heating, this will boost peak MLCAPE
to the 1500-2000 J/kg range (locally higher) across the corridor
east of the Appalachians, with a somewhat separate axis of mid-60s F
dew points and about 1500 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the front, over the
upper Ohio Valley region.

Deep-layer shear should increase from west-east through the day, as
the mid/upper height gradient tightens in response to the
approaching perturbations.  A broad area of 40-50-kt effective-shear
vectors over the warm sector, oriented slightly rightward of the
likely forcing boundaries, is possible by midafternoon, from
northern NY across much of PA to western MD and northern parts of
WV/VA.  This will aid in convective organization, with a blend of
discrete, clustered and mostly quasi-linear storm modes expected. 
Most of the activity should diminish after 00Z.  However, given the
strengthening forcing aloft and mass response over rich moisture
that will characterize the lower elevations of eastern PA/NJ/
southern NY, strong-severe convection may persist into this evening
over that area.

...Interior Northwest, northern Rockies...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon within this arc, moving mostly with the ambient
anticyclonic flow into an environment favoring isolated severe
gusts/hail.  The greatest convective concentration may be from the
Bitterroots area toward the Bighorns.  Convection should develop
preferentially/initially over areas of well-heated higher terrain,
moving into lower elevations characterized by marginal yet adequate
near-surface moisture, and strongly mixed subcloud layers. 
Convective coverage becomes more uncertain with westward extent into
OR; however, a favorable environment suggests isolated severe gusts
and/or hail are possible with any sustained convection that can
occur.  Pockets of favorable low-level moisture and strong surface
heating will lead to steep low/middle-level lapse rates with a deep,
well-mixed boundary layer in this part of the outlook as well.

..Edwards/Gleason.. 05/29/2020

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

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