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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Nov 16 2018 5:43 am


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook



000
ACUS01 KWNS 160532
SWODY1
SPC AC 160531

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous U.S. today
through tonight.

...Discussion...
An upper ridge will remain located off the western U.S. coast this
forecast period, while a broad cyclonic flow regime exists
downstream across the contiguous states.  A pair of fast-moving
shortwave troughs, one initially located over the northern
Mid-Atlantic region and the second immediately upstream over the
Midwest/Great Lakes, will track through New England today.  Strong
forcing for ascent associated within the exit regions of
accompanying 100-kt 500-mb jets will result in steepening midlevel
lapse rates, though forecast soundings suggest most buoyancy should
not become deep enough for lightning production.  While a lightning
strike or two cannot be ruled out from elevated convection, guidance
suggests this potential should remain quite low, precluding the
introduction of a general thunderstorm area.

..Peters/Nauslar.. 11/16/2018

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

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