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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Jul 21 2019 5:43 pm

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211634
SPC AC 211633

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z


The most likely area for severe thunderstorms is across eastern
Kansas into western Missouri from around mid-afternoon through
mid-evening. Severe wind gusts are expected, along with severe hail
and possibly a tornado or two.

...Central/eastern Kansas and western/southern Missouri...
An MCV across south-central Nebraska and far north-central Kansas at
midday will move east-southeastward toward northern/western Missouri
through this evening. A decayed MCS across the Missouri Valley has
effectively augmented/shunted a surface boundary southward with
development expected near it later today. As the boundary layer
heats and destabilizes, intensifying thunderstorm development is
most likely to initially occur by around mid-afternoon across
northeast Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska near a triple
point to the northeast of a weak surface low. 

Deep-layer shear should generally remain modest at around 25-35 kt
yielding predominately multicell clusters, although a few initial
supercells are possible. Severe hail is possible with initial
updrafts, and a tornado or two is also possible near/just east of
the surface cyclone/related MCV track. However, strong to severe
wind gusts will probably be the main risk with a modest-speed MCS
tracking southeastward into southeast Kansas and western Missouri
into this evening.

...Illinois/Indiana to the Upper Ohio Valley...
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage/intensity this
afternoon particularly near/just south of a south-southeastward
advancing cold front and near/east of a surface low and MCV across
Illinois and Indiana. A moist and moderately/strongly unstable air
mass will support the possibility of locally damaging winds,
although weak deep-layer shear and modest mid-level lapse rates
should temper the overall potential for organized severe. For
additional short-term details regarding the Upper Ohio Valley, see
Mesoscale Discussion 1560. 

The potential for a couple of severe thunderstorms will persist
through the early part of the afternoon across Downeast Maine with
severe hail/wind possible.

...High Plains...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Black Hills
southward to the Raton Mesa from mid/late afternoon into this
evening. Deep-layer shear will generally be modest, except in the
Black Hills vicinity where mid-level northwesterlies will be
stronger in association with a shortwave trough moving east across
North Dakota. Isolated severe hail and severe-caliber wind gusts
will be possible.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/21/2019



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