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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Aug 21 2019 9:33 am


 

Day 1

D4Saturday Aug 24 2019 - Sunday Aug 25 2019 D7Tuesday Aug 27 2019 - Wednesday Aug 28 2019
D5Sunday Aug 25 2019 - Monday Aug 26 2019 D8Wednesday Aug 28 2019 - Thursday Aug 29 2019
D6Monday Aug 26 2019 - Tuesday Aug 27 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
        
000 ACUS48 KWNS 210817 SWOD48 SPC AC 210816 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong northwest winds aloft will dive southeastward across the northern Rockies and into the Plains, with one or more leading waves affecting the northern Plains on Saturday/D4 and Sunday/D5 before the larger amplification occurs Tuesday/D7 into Wednesday/D8. These lead waves will interact with a plume of mid 60s F dewpoints over the Dakotas and western MN D4 and D5, with at least isolated severe hail possible. Mitigating severe coverage will be relatively cool air emanating out of a surface ridge to the east, suggesting storms may become elevated as they move east away from the deeply mixed air near the surface trough. That said, models differ on the timing of these waves, thus predictability is too low to introduce severe probabilities. During the D6-D8 time frame, more robust low-level moisture will be in place from NE toward the Upper Great Lakes, and winds aloft will increase over the northern Plains, Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, suggesting severe potential. Though timing issues exist amongst the models, the general signal is for the upper winds to become nearly parallel to the cold front, with areas of damaging wind possible from the central and northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley and Midwest. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2019

Day 2

Day 3

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