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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Dec 11 2019 8:36 pm


 

Day 1

D4Saturday Dec 14 2019 - Sunday Dec 15 2019 D7Tuesday Dec 17 2019 - Wednesday Dec 18 2019
D5Sunday Dec 15 2019 - Monday Dec 16 2019 D8Wednesday Dec 18 2019 - Thursday Dec 19 2019
D6Monday Dec 16 2019 - Tuesday Dec 17 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
        
000 ACUS48 KWNS 110946 SWOD48 SPC AC 110945 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active upper pattern will continue from the weekend into next week with several systems expected to rotate through the broad cyclonic flow aloft. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday. Thunderstorms are anticipated across FL (and perhaps eastern NC) as a the cold front associated with this shortwave moves through. Instability will be limited but vertical shear will be strong and a few stronger storms are possible. Another strong shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Great Basin/northern Rockies through the central/southern Plains and mid MS Valley into the OH Valley D5/Sunday through D7/Tuesday. Some timing and strength differences exist within the guidance but the overall pattern has shown reasonably good run-to-run and model-to-model consistency. Period between this shortwave and the one before it is enough for decent moisture from the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. As a result, a moderately moist and unstable air mass is forecast to be place ahead of this maturing system. Given the active pattern, a bit more consistency is needed within the guidance to have enough confidence to delineate any threat areas. However, if current trends continue, probabilities will likely be needed in a succeeding outlook. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2019

Day 2

Day 3

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