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SPC Day 3 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Dec 11 2019 8:20 pm

Categorical Probabilistic <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 1

Categorical Day 2 Outlook

ACUS03 KWNS 110821
SPC AC 110820

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Southeast, Florida, and Mid-Atlantic Friday. A few lightning strikes
are also possible across the coastal Pacific Northwest.

Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will likely be in place across the CONUS
early Friday. This cyclonic flow is expected to deepen/amplify
throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough continues to dig
eastward/southeastward into the Southeast and attendant
westerly/northwesterly flow aloft expands eastward. By early
Saturday morning, this shortwave trough is forecast to have a
negative tilt with strong mid-level flow beginning to spread
northward into the Mid-Atlantic States.

Current expectation is for the surface low associated with this
embedded shortwave trough to begin the period over the northeast
Gulf of Mexico. The low is then expected to develop quickly
northeastward, ending the period near the Delmarva Peninsula.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible near this low as
well as along and in the of its attendant cold front. Given the
anticipated track of the low, the warm sector will likely remain
mostly off the East Coast, limiting instability and storm strength
from southeast GA through the Carolinas. A few stronger storms are
possible farther south across northern FL as the cold front moves
through. Severe probability is currently too low to outlook any
areas but probabilities may be needed across the region in
subsequent outlooks. 

Farther west, strong mid-level flow will persist from OR/CA
southwestward into the southern/central Plains throughout the
period. Isolated lightning strikes are possible over the coastal
Pacific Northwest where cold mid-level temperatures will support
steep lapse rates and modest instability.

..Mosier.. 12/11/2019


Day 2

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: and Rick Curly:

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