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SPC Day 2 Outlook

Updates are issued at 100 am CST/CDT (0600/0700 UTC) and 1730 UTC - Current UTC time: Aug 21 2019 9:50 am


Categorical Probabilistic <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 1


Categorical Day 2 Outlook

000
ACUS02 KWNS 210520
SWODY2
SPC AC 210519

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM OKLAHOMA EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible Thursday from Oklahoma
eastward across the Ohio Valley, with hail or wind over the northern
High Plains.

...Synopsis...
Strong southwest flow aloft will remain over the Northeast, with an
upper low over Quebec. At the surface, a cold front will move across
New England with dry air spreading southeast across the Great Lakes.
South of the stronger winds aloft, a front will become nearly
stationary roughly from MD across the OH Valley and into OK, with a
moist and unstable air mass in the vicinity supporting clusters of
storms throughout the period.

To the west, a shortwave trough with 30-40 kt midlevel winds will
move east across AB, SK and MT, with attendant cold front.
Sufficiently moist southeast low-level winds ahead of this system
will result in destabilization from MT into the western Dakotas,
supporting a few strong to severe storms.

...Northern High Plains...
A shortwave trough and cold front will move across eastern MT and WY
during the day, and into the western Dakotas during the evening.
Southeast surface winds ahead of the front will bring mid to upper
50s F dewpoints westward beneath steep lapse rates aloft, resulting
in MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Cells or line segments are
expected to form along this front, with a hail and wind threat.
Winds will initially be weak in the low levels, but southeast 850 mb
winds may aid storms as they continue into the western Dakotas where
CIN will slowly erode. Overall, shear will not be particularly
strong, but sufficient for isolated mixed-mode severe storms.

...OK northeastward to the OH River...
Scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing Thursday morning, from parts
of KS eastward across the OH Valley. Models differ with placement
and timing of these clusters, but in general, there will be an
east/southeastward translation of the active zone as heating occurs
to the south and new storms develop. The most unstable air will
stretch from I-40 in TX/OK toward the OH River, with 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE possible. Westerly winds aloft and only weak low-level winds
will favor east/southeastward propagating storms capable of
localized wind damage or marginal hail.

...Northern VA...MD...southeast PA and NJ...
A moist air mass will remain south of an east-west oriented front
which will move very little during the day. Winds aloft will remain
nearly parallel to this front, and will be strongest to the north
where the air mass is less unstable. Convergence near this front may
be sufficient for a few thunderstorms during the afternoon, and
perhaps into the evening as height falls occur. If destabilization
occurs farther north than currently expected, severe probabilities
may be needed in later updates.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Jewell.. 08/21/2019

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

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