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SPC Day 2 Outlook

Updates are issued at 100 am CST/CDT (0600/0700 UTC) and 1730 UTC - Current UTC time: Dec 11 2019 9:18 pm


Categorical Probabilistic <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 1


Categorical Day 2 Outlook

000
ACUS02 KWNS 111721
SWODY2
SPC AC 111720

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur Thursday across
portions of the Southeast. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central CONUS, a
southern-stream shortwave trough will move eastward from the
southern/central Plains to the TN/OH Valleys on Thursday. An
expansive area of surface high pressure across the eastern CONUS
Thursday morning will retreat northeastward through the period as
the shortwave trough approaches. A prior frontal intrusion into the
Gulf of Mexico should generally limit the potential for
surface-based thunderstorms across much of the Southeast, with the
exception of the FL Peninsula.

Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms may occur primarily
Thursday evening and overnight from the central Gulf Coast into
parts of AL/GA and perhaps SC as low-level warm and moist advection
increases with the approach of the shortwave trough. Weak
instability above the stable boundary layer is expected to preclude
a severe risk with this activity. Other isolated thunderstorms may
occur Thursday afternoon and evening across the FL Peninsula,
probably focused along/near the Atlantic Coast. Weak flow and poor
lapse rates through the 800-500 mb layer should limit appreciable
storm organization across this region.

Farther west, isolated low-topped convection producing occasional
lightning will be possible in a post-frontal regime for parts of the
WA/OR Coast and vicinity. Instability should remain quite weak over
this area.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Gleason.. 12/11/2019

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

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