spc severe weather - big bay weather

Online since October of 2007

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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Oct 13 2025 7:17 pm

Day 1

D4	Thursday Oct 16 2025 - Friday Oct 17 2025	D7	Sunday Oct 19 2025 - Monday Oct 20 2025
D5	Friday Oct 17 2025 - Saturday Oct 18 2025	D8	Monday Oct 20 2025 - Tuesday Oct 21 2025
D6	Saturday Oct 18 2025 - Sunday Oct 19 2025	(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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