MD 1677 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN AZ
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032226Z - 040030Z
IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE HAIL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO THE DESERT FLOOR OF SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE RISK SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH...HOWEVER SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY REFLECTS SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE RIM/MOUNTAINS OF EAST
CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ IS
VERY HOT/MOIST...WITH GPS DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.15-1.40 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERT FLOOR. ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THE 12Z TUCSON OBSERVED RAOB AND MORE
RECENT WSR-88D DERIVED WINDS IMPLY AS MUCH AS 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ...WITH WEAKER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL AZ CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
SOMEWHAT INCREASED WINDS ALOFT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...FURTHER COLD
POOL CONSOLIDATION/SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWESTWARD PROPAGATION MAY FAVOR A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT REACHING THE DESERT FLOOR/I-10 CORRIDOR OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
..GUYER.. 07/03/2008
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
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