000 FXUS63 KMQT 101618 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 11171 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING THROUGH ONTARIO...SEPARATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME FROM ANOTHER LARGER DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LOW CENTER EMBEDDED IN THIS LONGWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SURFACE LOWS ARE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN IOWA. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE IOWA LOW THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CONTINUES TO DRAW DEEP MOISTURE INTO WISCONSIN AND EASTERN ONTARIO. && .SHORT TERM... MODELS SHOW THE MID LEVEL TEXAS LOW MOVING TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA PULLING THE ATTACHED FRONT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL START TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST U.P. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN U.P. BY 00Z THIS EVENING. LOCAL DERIVED HIGH RESOLUTION WRF/NAM/GFS MODELS SHOW RAINS STARTING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WISCONSIN BORDER AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL KEEP THE GRIDS TIMING THE SAME FOR NOW. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS. CURRENT GRIDS ARE VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL...SO WILL LEAVE THEM ALONE. PLAN TO UPDATE THE ZONES MAINLY FOR WORDING AND CUTTING BACK ON SOME OF THE RAIN POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM... AS SECOND SHRTWV MOVES NE TO NEAR KANSAS CITY BY 12Z THU AND THEN INTO IA BY 00Z FRI...THE LEAD SHRTWV IN SW MN IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO THE NW. AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES AWAY...ACCOMPANYING DYNAMICS/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL ALSO WEAKEN. THE RESULT WL BE A COLLAPSE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PCPN BAND AS EVIDENCED BY NAM/GFS FCST DCRSG MID LVL RH UNDER UPR LVL CNVGC/RISING HGTS. WITH THIS DRYING ALF BUT LLVL MOISTENING... EXPECT SOME FOG/-DZ TO DVLP TNGT...ESPECIALLY WHERE LLVL ESE FLOW UPSLOPES. BUMPED UP POPS AGAIN NEAR THE WI BORDER ON THU AFTN WITH PREFERRED 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM SHOWING THE RETURN OF DEEPER MSTR UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN ADVANCE OF THE SECOND SHRTWV. TENDED TOWARD THE HI END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR LO TEMPS TNGT AND THE LOWER END ON THU WITH EXPECTATION FOR LTL DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMP WITH ABUNDANT LO CLD. ON THU NGT/FRI...ECMWF/NAM INDICATE SHRTWV/H3 JET MAX ROTATING NWWD ON THE NE FLANK OF CLOSED LO ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC WL INTERACT WITH ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR /FCST PWAT UP TO 250 PCT OF NORMAL/ TO GENERATE MORE WDSPRD RA AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE ZNS. AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PIVOTS TO THE NNW ON FRI...INCRSD POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE LAND CWA. WENT TOWARD HI END OF MOS FOR TEMPS THU NGT AND BLO MOS FCST TEMPS ON FRI TO EMPHASIZE LTL DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMP WITH CLDS/PCPN/ LLVL CYC FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS. THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED LO ARE PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY S ON FRI NGT...WITH DIMINISHING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/RISING MSLP/UPR CNVGC AND SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING CAUSING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PCPN TO FADE...SO LOWERED POPS SGNFTLY DURING THIS PD. TENDED TOWARD SLOWLY DIMINISHING POPS/CLD COVER OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPR LO SHIFTS SLOWLY SEWD AND AWAY...WITH NE FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THIS FEATURE DRAGGING INCRSGLY DRIER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS. && .AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAFS/... MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT DESPITE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. EXPECT DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY WED MORNING BUT THEN SHOULD SEE A LOWERING CLOUD DECK TOWARD WED EVENING AS A RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN AT BOTH TAF SITES BTWN 22-00Z THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS CONDITIONS QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING...BUT THE LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THICKER FOG AND LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES BY LATE EVENING. && .MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST/... NNE WINDS WILL FUNNEL ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS NEARING 30KTS. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH QUEBEC WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD TO JAMES BAY AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN TEXAS TO IOWA WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLIDING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...KF
NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion
Courtesy National Weather Service