000 FXUS63 KMQT 141434 AAB AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1034 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010 .UPDATED FOR PUBLIC FORECASTS. && .SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ARE SHOWING A DEEP LOW PREVAILING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND ANOTHER OVER THE FOUR CORNER AREAS. A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA...THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO THEN INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDES A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EAST COAST LOW AND INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL MAIN FEATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY. RUC AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE STABILIZING RIDGE. GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND REACH INTO WESTERN U.P. BY 00Z MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING ALSO SUGGEST A THICKENING OF HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE TO SIGNIFICANT HEATING TODAY. THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE LAKE SHORE WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL SET UP HOLDING THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. I PLAN TO UPDATE THE FORECASTS MAINLY TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG. && .LONG TERM...TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS. QUIET WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEASTERLY EXPECT ADVECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE FA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP JUST BELOW FREEZING ALLOWING FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. FOR THE MOMENT CONFINED FOG POTENTIAL OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES. THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S AS DAYTIME MIXING APPROACHES 850MB UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AT NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSH 6C. DAYTIME MIXING TO AROUND 900/875MB WARRANTS HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. EXPECT A COOLING TREND THEREAFTER AS A STRONG S/W...ACCOMPANIED BY 10-12 DM 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...PLOWS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION NEXT WEEKEND. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE...TIMING ISSUES REMAIN. LATEST 00Z/ECMWF REVERTED TO THE QUICKER SOLUTION IT SHOWED IN ITS 00Z RUN FROM YESTERDAY WHICH IS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS...00Z/18Z...AGREE ON WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO 12Z RUNS FROM THE EC. EITHER WAY NEXT WEEKEND WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS/TWENTIES. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS TO WORK THEMSELVES OUT. && .AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAFS/... TAF FORECASTING CONTINUES TO BE TOUGH TONIGHT. THINKING STILL IS THAT LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG WILL RETURN TO KSAW...BUT PUSHED TIMING BACK TO LATER THIS MORNING AS SNOWMELT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT KSAW THIS MORNING TO VLIFR WITH VIS AND LOW CIG...AND THEN THE FOG AND LOW CIGS SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY IN THE MORNING WITH SOME MIXING AND DRIER AIR COMING INTO THE AREA. AT KCMX...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE DRY AIR IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED THERE. && .MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST/... HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 25 KT THROUGH THE FCST PD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG LONG TERM...PEARSON AVIATION...07 MARINE...VOSS
NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion
Courtesy National Weather Service