000 FXUS63 KMQT 031958 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 359 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008 .SYNOPSIS... WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BTWN A RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM AND A BROAD TROF FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE NE CONUS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES EXTENDED FROM MN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS RESULTING IN ACYC NRLY FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED DIURNAL INLAND CU BUILDUP OVER THE REGION AND A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM ERN ND INTO NW WI. .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY) HIGH PRES AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH MAINLY JUST SCT AFTERNOON CU. TONIGHT...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...EXPECT INLAND MIN READINGS TO FALL OFF AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO AFTERNOON DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. FRI...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WAA TAKES OVER...850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 12C SUPPORT MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 70...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI WHERE A SW FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR. SW 950-850 MB WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI PUSHING TEMPS ALONG THE SHORE DOWN INTO THE 60S AFTER MAX READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVELS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SETTING UP A ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP FROM THIS LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT INTO MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. DRY STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY...AND MOISTURE TRAVELING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH INTO THE WESTERN U.P. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN U.P. THE ONTARIO SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. TOGETHER THIS WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A HIGH WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO SOTUHERN QUEBEC ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE RH APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS BEST FOR NOW. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH SFC HIGH PRES AND DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU AT KSAW WILL FADE THIS EVENING AND MAY REDEVELOP FRI AFTERNOON. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 20KT IN THE FORECAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...DLG AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion
Courtesy National Weather Service